THINK HOUSING PRICES ARE HIGH - THE RENTAL MARKET IS WORSE...
CBC NEWS - Peter Evans
While the dramatic impact of higher lending rates on the housing market has been well documented, what's happening in the rental market hasn't gotten nearly as much attention. As anyone who has signed a lease — or tried to — lately can attest, rent is going up across Canada at an unprecedented pace.
According to data from rental accommodation website Rentals.ca and analyzed by data firm Urbanation, the average rent in October across Canada was $1,976, across all types of properties, from bachelor apartments all the way to three-bedrooms. That's an increase of 11.9 per cent, well ahead of Canada's inflation rate of 6.9 per cent.
"Average rent in October across Canada was $1,976 - that's an increase of 11.9%"
The increases aren't even across the country, either, as Atlantic Canada has seen rents rise at the eye-watering pace of 32.2 per cent in the past year. Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta have seen increases of 17.7 per cent, 15.1 per cent and 13.2 per cent, respectively.
Other regions experienced increases of slightly below the national average, but in just about every market across the country, tenants are facing a huge jump in the cost of keeping a roof over their head.
Calgarian Kellie Knight knows this all too well. She rents a two-bedroom unit in the city for $2,200 a month. That's a jump of about $500 compared with what she paid for a similar unit just before the pandemic. And it's bad enough that her rent now eats up about half her monthly income — far more than financial experts say is advisable.
"I was shocked how much prices had gone up and very quickly had to rearrange my budget to make today's rent work," she told CBC News in an interview. "When you're spending over half of your monthly pay on rent, you're not saving anything for a down payment."
Yet she was happy to sign up for a two-year lease recently to lock in that price, because it gave her a reprieve from the uncertainty she would have faced if she had to move. "I moved here from Los Angeles, and if you had told me at that time that I would be paying L.A. rent prices in Calgary, I would have thought you were delusional," she said.
Normally, a slowing real estate market might be good news for renters, as landlords might be more eager to find good tenants. But that's not happening right now for a reason that Canadians have become very familiar with in the pandemic: supply and demand.
"Interest rates are actually working to elevate rent inflation because many people are not buying, so they are renting more," CIBC economist Benjamin Tal said. People who would normally love to own are finding themselves priced out of the market by higher lending rates, which is causing them to either enter or stay in the rental market. "Usually they would leave the rental market [and] be homeowners," Tal said. "But if they will not move out of their apartment, they will occupy the supply that is available ... that's like new demand."
"Developers are cancelling projects because of the cost of building," Tal said. "Investors, due to higher interest rates, are not investing in real estate anymore."
Tal says prior to the recent real estate slowdown, about half of the new condominium units in Toronto were owned by investors. Most of them were rented out, but the sudden increase in mortgage rates on those units now makes them unprofitable, so those investors are selling them — often to people who are planning to live in them themselves.
"Higher interest rates reduce the incentive to invest in real estate, especially in the condo space," he said. "So if you don't have those units, that's another factor driving up the cost of renting what's left."
Faced with higher mortgage costs and lower prices, investors basically have two options: sell and take the unit off the market, or increase the rent. And neither option is good news for tenants.
THE CANADIAN YIELD CURVE
THE GLOBE AND MAIL - Fergal Smith
As the Bank of Canada considers ditching oversized interest rate hikes, it is dealing with an economy likely more overheated than previously thought but also the bond market’s clearest signal yet that recession and lower inflation lie ahead. Canada’s central bank says that the economy needs to slow from overheated levels in order to ease inflation. If its tightening campaign overshoots to achieve that objective it could trigger a deeper downturn than expected.
The bond market could be flagging that risk. The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond has fallen nearly 100 basis points below the 2-year yield, marking the biggest inversion of Canada’s yield curve in Refinitiv data going back to 1994 and deeper than the U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion.
Some analysts see curve inversions as predictors of recessions. Canada’s economy is likely to be particularly sensitive to higher rates after Canadians borrowed heavily during the COVID-19 pandemic to participate in a red-hot housing market. “Markets think the Canadian economy is about to suffer a triple blow as domestic consumption collapses, U.S. demand weakens and global commodity prices drop,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay.
The BoC has opened the door to slowing the pace of rate increases to a quarter of a percentage point following multiple oversized hikes in recent months that lifted the benchmark rate to 3.75 per cent, its highest since 2008. Money markets are betting on a 25-basis-point increase when the bank meets to set policy on Wednesday, but a slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll expect a larger move.
Canada’s employment report for November showed that the labour market remains tight, while gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.9 per cent in the third quarter. That’s much stronger than the 1.5 per cent pace forecast by the BoC and together with upward revisions to historical growth could indicate that demand has moved further ahead of supply, economists say.
But they also say that the details of the third-quarter GDP data, including a contraction in domestic demand, and a preliminary report showing no growth in October are signs that higher borrowing costs have begun to impact activity.
The BoC has forecast that growth would stall from the fourth quarter of this year through the middle of 2023.
The depth of Canada’s curve inversion is signalling a “bad recession” not a mild one, said David Rosenberg, chief economist & strategist at Rosenberg Research.
It reflects greater risk to the outlook in Canada than the United States due to “a more inflated residential real estate market and consumer debt bubble,” Rosenberg said.
A SHOWERS WORTH OF SAVINGS
WATRTEK PRO
Canadians typically use an average of 329 litres of water per person every day which is second only to the United States in the developed world. Astonishingly, this number is more than twice as much, on average, as Europeans who pay substantially more for their water. Canadians consume a staggering 65% of water in their bathrooms, and approximately 35% of all residential indoor bathroom water usage in Canada comes from showering and bathing. In fact, the average North American family uses about 150 litres of water each day just from showering.
With our relatively low cost of water, Canadians are not typically mindful about their average water consumption habits. If you ask Canadians how many times a day they flush the toilet or wash their hands do you think they would be able to easily answer? What if you asked the same people how many litres of water an average ten-minute shower uses, do you think they would have any idea? And what if you asked residential building owners or managers how many shower heads units are currently leaking, do you think they would be able to estimate the amount of money being lost down the drain?
Leaky shower heads, low-flow shower heads, as well as tenant non-compliance, are three key issues that residential building owners currently face that have a direct impact on their NOI. Did you know that depending on the rate of a drip, a single leaky shower head can waste as much as 15,000 litres of water each year? We know that tenants do not typically report leaky faucets, shower heads or toilets to management as they do not particularly feel a sense of ownership for their apartments nor do they pay for their water usage.
The most efficient way to prohibit tenants from changing the amount of flow from the units’ shower heads is to install Anti-Tamper Shower Head Regulators. These regulators are installed directly on the shower head water supply pipe in the wall behind the shower, which is invisible to tenants and virtually impossible to tamper with. The regulators provide both consistent and comfortable water flow, however, should tenants attempt to change the shower head, the actual flow of water will remain constant. Furthermore, and perhaps most importantly, once the regulators are installed, there is no further need for maintenance inspections which cost valuable time and money for building owners and reduces disruptions for tenants.
Installing Anti-Tamper Shower Head Regulators from Watrtek PRO is a key component in building the foundation of “Smarter Buildings” It ensures building owners are utilizing and leveraging technological solutions to help mitigate the fact that most tenants are not mindful of controlling their wasteful habits of our precious natural resources. To find out more about how we can become your trusted partner in water technology solutions, call today for your free assessment to see how much Anti-Tamper Shower Head Regulators can help reduce your water consumption and operating cost.
For more info on this and other water saving measures please contact:
Nando at nandop@watrtek.com
OUR CURRENT OFFERINGS
321 BAY STREET - MIDLAND - $3,645,000 / 5.00% Cap Rate
This is an entire block 0.25 acres in the downtown core of Midland which is north of Barrie. It is 300 feet from the waterfront and includes a low rise mixed use retail and apartment investment. There are 17 rental apartments and 6 retail commercial spaces on the main floor. This is a low maintenance building with no elevator, no balconies and no underground garage. There is surface parking only. Residential rents are 100% below market with many seniors in the building and long term tenants. The asset is free and clear of financing.
175 CHURCHILL PARK ROAD - CHATHAM – $22,500,000 / 4.25% Cap Rate
This sale is of a 3 storey non combustible NEW concrete rental apartment building sitting on 1.5 acres of land. The building comprises of 52 suites and has on site party room, elevator and surface parking. There are equal number of one and two bedroom suites with many over 1,000 sf in size with high ceilings, on suite laundry and HVAC, air conditioned and finished to luxury standards. The property is realty tax exempt for 10 years and is currently under construction being 80% complete. Occupancy permits are in hand and stabilized occupancy is schedule for June 2023. This building is not subject to rules relating to rent under the existing tenancy legislation.
20 BRADMON DRIVE - ST. CATHARINES - $18,000,000 / 4.25% Cap Rate
This property comprises a well located concrete rental apartment building with a total of 79 suites. Dating from the 1960's this mid rise building has mainly large two bedroom suites with brick brick, double windows, balconies and flat roof. Almost 70% of the suites have been renovated but there still is some rental upside in the project. There is on site laundry and management office along with a single elevator. The building also has roof top cellular income in place. There is low rate financing of $9MM +/- to assume.
23 GRIFFIN STREET - WATERDOWN - $2,699,000 / 5.00% Cap Rate
This is a 5,000 square foot office building situated on a nice 10,000 square feet corner site. This is great for an owner user and is well suited for offices such as real estate, lawyers, accountants, architects, developers, medical etc. The space is demised to include reception, kitchen, bathrooms, board room, private offices, gallery presentation space and storage. There is potential to add another floor. There is ample surface parking for employees and clients. This site also could be a future mid rise residential development.
THE APARTMENT GROUP
Together the team has completed over 1,500 transactions and has sold over $7.0 billion in apartments and development land. Put us to work for you and see the results. NO ONE has sold more buildings than our group. Experience, knowledge and professionalism will insure you get the right deal or the highest price if you are selling.
The Apartment Group is a dedicated team of professionals specializing in the sale of multi-residential investment properties. With over 40 years of combined experience, the team brings together their strengths including strong negotiation and sales skills along with highly technical market analysis and appraisal methods.
We are a boutique Brokerage but have the capabilities of the larger houses without the overhead. We have: an internal database of over 10,500 active apartment and land Buyers; a list of all apartment building owners in the Greater Toronto Area; our web site gets over 50,000 hits a month; we highlight properties for sale through our newsletter which reaches 10,000 investors monthly.
MITCHELL CHANG
President & Owner,
Salesperson
Direct: 416-907-8280
mchang@cfrealty.ca
LORENZO DIGIANFELICE, AACI
Broker of Record, Owner
Direct 416-907-8281
ldigianfelice@cfrealty.ca
JAKE RINGWALD
Salesperson
Direct 416-996-7713
jringwald@cfrealty.ca